Dream it!

By LARRY ROHTER
Published: October 20, 2005
RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct. 14 - Brazilians have a startling propensity to shoot each other.

With about 180 million people living here, nearly 40,000 were killed by firearms in 2003. That is almost four times the number in the United States, whose population is larger by more than 100 million people. Brazil’s cities are growing more violent and dangerous, crime is rising and gangs often have more firepower than the police now.

But a government plan for a complete nationwide ban on guns has generated an impassioned civic debate of a kind rarely seen here.

On Oct. 23, Latin America’s biggest country will vote in a referendum that asks a single direct question, “Should the commerce of arms and ammunition be prohibited in Brazil?” While other countries have banned guns, supporters of both the yes and no positions here say that this is the first time anywhere in the world that the electorate is being called on to decide the issue.

The vote, in which participation is obligatory (shirkers will be fined), is meant to ratify a highly restrictive gun control law that went into effect at the end of 2003, which has made it extremely difficult for ordinary citizens to legally buy, sell or own guns and ammunition. That legislation’s phased application called for this referendum to decide on an all-but-total limit.

Proponents of the ban, bolstered by a letter of support from several Nobel Peace Prize winners, say this is Brazil’s chance to vote for a safer society. “This is not Switzerland or England or even the United States, this is the country that kills with firearms more than any in the world,” said Rubem Cesar Fernandes, the director of Viva Rio, a civic organization that has championed the ban. “We’re experiencing an epidemic, a plague, and radical steps are required to control the spread and irresponsible use of firearms.”

Opponents of the ban, including groups that describe themselves as allies of the National Rifle Association, say it would only embolden criminals. “Once bandits know with certainty that law-abiding citizens no longer have guns in their homes, that they can go in without fear, then God help the Brazilian family,” said Alberto Fraga, a member of Congress who is president of the Parliamentary Front for the Right to Legitimate Defense.

Nearly 80 percent of the weapons manufactured in Brazil, which has the second largest arms industry in the Western Hemisphere, are exported, mostly to neighboring countries like Paraguay and Colombia. Many are then smuggled back into the country. Other guns used to commit crimes come from police and military arsenals, either stolen or sold by corrupt soldiers and officers.

“If approved, this measure is not going to affect criminals, but will only prevent ordinary citizens from defending themselves,” said Mr. Fraga, a former police commander. “Criminals don’t go to the store to buy their guns, they get them clandestinely through networks of contraband, which are only going to grow if the yes wins” because ordinary citizens will also have to turn to them.

In 2004, the first full year of the gun restrictions, the number of killings attributed to gunfire declined just over 8 percent, according to official statistics. Proponents of the ban attribute the drop to the new restrictions, while opponents point to factors like the hiring of more police officers and better equipment for them.

Meanwhile, more than 450,000 weapons, ranging from handguns and rifles to mortars, have been collected during an official campaign offering cash for arms, though Walter Merling of the Brazilian Association of Gun Collectors dismissed the significance of the effort by saying that “90 percent of what was turned in was useless old junk.”

With the ban’s proponents and opponents accusing one another of distorting statistics and sowing alarmism, both sides have been waging an intense media campaign that includes televised round tables and advertisements. The opponents have even hired airplanes to fly over Rio’s beaches with a banner reading: “Disarmament is good for criminals. Wake up Brazil, and vote no.”

In addition, paralyzed shooting victims have testified on behalf of both the camps. The views of celebrities are displayed on billboards and in commercials. Opponents of the gun ban have challenged the legislation in court and are awaiting a Supreme Court ruling. If the ban is approved, they expect to file new complaints about additional restrictions on the ownership of guns and the sale of ammunition, which, with gun stores closed, will be available only from the military or the police through cumbersome procedures.

While support for the ban once seemed strong, both sides now agree that the race is tight, and the outcome is uncertain.

“We’re still ahead, but our curve is dropping and they are gaining,” said Mr. Fernandes of Viva Rio. “They’ve been stronger than I thought they would be, and their strategy is much more efficient than ours.”

One deterrent is that the statute that went into effect at the end of 2003 was supposed to be accompanied by other measures to enhance public security. But President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has instead made cuts in the budget and, distracted by the worst corruption scandal in modern Brazilian history, has not managed even to spend all of the reduced amount that is available.

“Middle-class voters are terrified because they don’t see the investment being made in public security,” said Raul Jungmann, a member of Congress who is the leader of the yes coalition. “That makes our task much harder.”